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Lithium-ion battery pack price dropped to 115 U.S. dollars per kilowatt-hour in 2024, down from over 144 dollars per kilowatt-hour a year earlier.. Lithium-ion battery pack price dropped to 115 U.S. dollars per kilowatt-hour in 2024, down from over 144 dollars per kilowatt-hour a year earlier.. According to a recent analysis, the average price of lithium-ion battery packs for electric vehicles fell by 20 per cent to USD 115 per kilowatt hour in 2024 - the sharpest price drop since 2017. [pdf]
The finance group revised its global battery demand growth projection to 29% for 2024, down from the previous estimate of 35%, with a 31% growth expected in 2023. Goldman also forecasts a 40% reduction in battery pack prices over 2023 and 2024, followed by a continued decline to reach a total 50% reduction by 2025-2026.
In 2023, the supply of cobalt and nickel exceeded demand by 6.5% and 8%, and supply of lithium by over 10%, thereby bringing down critical mineral prices and battery costs. While low critical mineral prices help bring battery costs down, they also imply lower cash flows and narrower margins for mining companies.
LFP production and adoption is primarily located in China, where two-thirds of EV sales used this chemistry in 2023. The share of LFP batteries in EV sales in Europe and the United States remains below 10%, with high-nickel chemistries still most common in these markets.
LFP is the most prevalent chemistry in the Chinese electric car market, while NMC batteries are more common in the European and American electric car markets. China’s current leading role in battery production, however, comes at the cost of high levels of overcapacity.
In contrast, LFP batteries have a lower residual value after recycling, which could put pressure on recycling business models. Nonetheless, regulations can fill this gap by either incentivising or mandating the recycling of end-of-life batteries regardless of their residual value.
In 2023, the global EV fleet consumed about 130 TWh of electricity – roughly the same as Norway’s total electricity demand in the same year. Zooming out to the global scale, EVs accounted for about 0.5% of the world’s total final electricity consumption in 2023, and around 1% in China and Europe.
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